Are Bay Area malls doomed with the inevitable closing of Sears?

There isn’t any chance that Sears can survive in its current state. So how will its closure affect Bay Area malls? We are no strangers to department store consolidations and liquidations. Bullock’s, Liberty House, Emporium-Capwell, Montgomery Ward, Mervyn’s all have come and gone. History has shown that some malls fail and some thrive with change. Former anchor spaces have been converted to new department stores, cinemas, and inline stores. One thing is for sure though; malls will never be the same without Sears.

I predict a small number of malls will falter in the region. Antioch’s Somersville Towne Center is at risk. The former Gottschalk’s is still empty and the former Mervyn’s is now a Fallas Parades (anyone heard of them?). Macerich, the mall’s former owner, sold the property in May of 2014.

Fairfield’s Solano Town Center is also at risk because the once 5-anchor store property will now have just two anchors. Seems like a good opportunity for Macy’s to open a second location.

Santa Rosa Plaza, while the most upscale mall in the region, will be down to one anchor store. Half the former Mervyn’s site is still empty.

Richmond’s Hilltop Mall is always a risk (the mall is in receivership).

Northgate Mall is a risk, but if the existing cinema replaced Sears, then the former cinema space would be returned to retail. This could really be an opportunity.

Some malls may actually do better without Sears. It’s not unusual to see foot traffic die off near a Sears stores today, so replacing them with something more viable would be an improvement. Those malls include Sunvalley Mall, Southland Mall, Newpark Mall, Stoneridge Mall, Roseville Galleria, Arden Fair Mall, Northgate Mall, and West Valley Mall.

Now if JC Penney were to close some of these locations, malls would be in real trouble.

 

Sears locations

City	Shopping Mall	Leaving
Antioch	Somersville Towne Center	Macy’s, Fallas, and an empty anchor (former Gottschalks)
Capitola	Capitola Mall	Macy’s, Target, and Kohl’s
Citrus Heights	Sunrise Mall	Two Macy’s and JC Penney
Concord	Sunvalley Mall	Two Macy’s and JC Penney
Cupertino	Vallco Shopping Mall	Macy’s and JC Penney (also scheduled to close)
Fairfield	Solano Town Center Mall	Macy’s, JC Penney, and cinema. Former Mervyn’s now a Sports Authority and Forever 21.
Hayward	Southland Mall	Macy’s, JC Penney, and Kohl’s
Modesto	Vintage Faire Mall	Two Macy’s, JC Penney, and Forever 21
Newark	NewPark Mall	Macy’s, JC Penney, Burlington Coat Factory, and an empty anchor (former Target)
Pleasanton	Stoneridge Mall	Two Macy’s, Nordstrom, and JC Penney
Richmond	Hilltop Mall	Macy’s, JC Penney, and Walmart
Roseville	Roseville Galleria	Nordstrom, Macy’s, JC Penney
Sacramento	Arden Fair Mall	Nordstrom, Macy’s, and JC Penney
San Bruno	Shops at Tanforan Mall	Target and JC Penney
San Jose	Eastridge Mall	Macy’s and JC Penney
San Jose	Westfield Oakridge Mall	Macy’s and Target
San Mateo	Hillsdale Mall	Nordstrom, Macy’s
San Rafael	Northgate Mall	Macy’s and Kohl’s
Santa Rosa	Santa Rosa Plaza	Macy’s and half-empty anchor (former Mervyn’s)
Stockton	Weberstown Mall	Dillard’s and JC Penney
Tracy	West Valley Mall	Macy’s, Target, JC Penney, and cinema